[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191842 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY...NERN PA...VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...

VALID 191842Z - 192045Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS INCREASED OVER UPSTATE NY INTO MUCH
OF VT AHEAD OF EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NY.  CONTINUE WW 509 AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THOUGH COUNTIES WEST OF
THE FRONT CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE WATCH.

AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
ERN NY/CENTRAL PA WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AHEAD OF BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS PRODUCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING FROM NW
OF BTV TO 25 W GFL TO JUST E OF IPT.  PRESSURE FALLS HAVE MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE SSELY
SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VWP FROM ALB
INDICATES 40 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2. 
THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITHIN
THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE MAINTAINING MORE DISCRETE
CHARACTER AS OPPOSED TO PERSISTENT LINEAR SEGMENT NOW MOVING TOWARDS
NWRN VT.  WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
WW.

..EVANS.. 06/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

41397414 41187627 41477656 42977517 44957343 44867123 

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