[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 19 18:14:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191814 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191814Z - 192015Z

AREA OF MAXIMUM SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEING MONITORED FROM NERN MO
INTO CENTRAL IL FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THIS AREA.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL CB FORMING ALONG E-W ORIENTED
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NRN MO INTO SERN NEB.  STORM
IS INITIATING INVOF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX NOW
SHIFTING ACROSS SERN IA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG POSSIBLE ONCE TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S
OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL.  INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
PREVALENT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS AREAS TO THE
NORTH UNDERGO STRONGER DRYING DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.  SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH ANY
PERSISTENT STORM.  THOUGH WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT.  THUS...IF A STORM CAN TAKE
ROOT INTO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH RIGHT MOVERS DEVELOPING INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY OVER SRN HALF OF IL.

..EVANS.. 06/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

40349313 40599261 40319000 40188758 39088750 38658878
39389146 39949297 

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