[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 19 15:10:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191508 COR
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IND INTO SERN MI/NWRN
OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191508Z - 191630Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER FAR E-CENTRAL IL AND INTO SWRN
MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  GIVEN
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG SHEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
IND...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AIR MASS HAS YET TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS IND AND SRN
LOWER MI THIS MORNING...YET DEEP ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING FROM ERN IL INTO SWRN
MI.  SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHERE RUC
FORECAST AND MODIFIED-OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL OVERCOME MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER CAP.  APPEARS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INCREASING UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS... THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.

..EVANS.. 06/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

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