[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 19 13:39:58 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191340 
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-191545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0840 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NY INTO PORTIONS OF VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191340Z - 191545Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.

LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF MOIST CONVECTION NOW INCREASING OVER WRN NY AND
NWRN PA THIS MORNING.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
80F NEAR SYR/UCA AND INTO THE NRN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE
MODIFIED OBSERVED/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW TO MID 80F
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  SBCAPE / NOW AROUND
1000 J/KG / SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG IN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.  VWP/S
FROM BGM AND BUF INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...WITH DEEP
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SITES GIVEN MORE WLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT
AT BUF.  NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT LINEAR
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND SPREADS INTO ERN
NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..EVANS.. 06/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

41977547 42157712 43357673 44897433 44837230 42797318 

WWWW