[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 172105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172104 
OKZ000-TXZ000-172230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...504...

VALID 172104Z - 172230Z

INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION AND WEAK LOW
ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS FLOWING NWD INTO THIS
AREA WHERE BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS WERE OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN GENERALLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NWRN TX
THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY MODEST
30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLE PROPAGATING SWD/SEWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX DURING TH NIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

32220237 36949860 36969590 35849588 35619536 34409561
33849645 31859803 30399939 

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