[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 17 03:17:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170315 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-170415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MN/WCNTRL WI/NE IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...

VALID 170315Z - 170415Z

...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 04Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL
WI/SE MN AND NCNTRL INTO NERN IA. ANOTHER WATCH IS BEING
CONSIDERED...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS SW MN...WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN. LOCAL
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TWIN CITIES AND DES MOINES RADARS INDICATE
NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL IA INTO SCNTRL MN. SEVERE WINDS
WERE REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS HANCOCK CO IA WITH THESE
STORMS. 

LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ERN MN/WI OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE
CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGEST ONE WAVE ACROSS NRN MN...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REDUCING MASS FLUX THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVER THE REGION.
BUT...PORTIONS OF SE MN/WRN WI ARE NOW IN A LOCAL CONFLUENCE ZONE
WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS.

..TAYLOR.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

42689225 42899398 43969427 44689326 45959220 46269131
46129077 44379058 43559083 

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