[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 162102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162102 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-162230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD....SWRN MN...ERN AND SCNTRL NEB...NWRN
IA....CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...491...

VALID 162102Z - 162230Z

EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN/AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED WITH STRENGTHENING SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCHES
490 AND 491 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AT PRESENT...A VERY INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED STORM COMPLEX MOVING NEWD
AT OVER 40KT WILL CROSS TURNER AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN SERN SD OVER
THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE MOVING INTO SWRN MN BY 22Z. BOWING STRUCTURE OF
THIS COMPLEX AND ORIENTATION TO 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SUGGEST
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF WW 490.

FARTHER SOUTH...FROM SCNTRL NEB SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS...STRONG LOW
LEVEL SLY/SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE. RESULTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORMS IN MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SUPERCELL MERGERS WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAZARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TREND TOWARD LARGE SCALE LINEAR
MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DEEP LAYER FRONT MAY COMMENCE AS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

40689718 40649732 36989838 37019950 38709956 38780086
40660077 41410027 41519928 42939923 43319896 44239785
44189489 43259484 42949652 

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