[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 16 02:30:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160228 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-160400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB / N-CNTRL INTO WRN KS / ERN CO / THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...486...488...

VALID 160228Z - 160400Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PARTICULARLY WITH
STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE HLC AREA.  HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04-05Z.

AS OF 0220Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM KEARNEY AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL NEB SWWD TO GRAHAM COUNTY KS AND THEN MORE WWD
INTO THOMAS AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN KS.  MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC AND
AMA SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT THE CAP
IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS INTO THE OK AND TX
PNHDLS AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 80S.

HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL
NEB.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AT LEAST
04-05Z OWING TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP...THOUGH ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

38450196 39670121 40320016 40709898 40539836 39629843
38870012 36600104 35840112 35550187 35730233 36640266 

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