[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 15 20:56:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152053 
NDZ000-SDZ000-152230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152053Z - 152230Z

AS CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS FAR NRN SD AND SRN/CNTRL ND THIS
AFTERNOON...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A
WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL SD WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL ND. SFC
DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 60S F AND A MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000
TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX
IN CNTRL SD ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN ND. AS
THE CAP WEAKENS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
SFC-BASED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 06/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45370015 45680096 46370151 47500111 48040009 48149897
47769816 47089773 46029802 45399917 

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