[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 15 02:59:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 150257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150257 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL ND/SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150257Z - 150430Z

THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 484. 
OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD.  A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 04 0R 05Z
E OF CURRENT WW.

AS OF 0240Z...REGIONAL RADAR...IR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WIBAUX COUNTY MT
EWD INTO GOLDEN VALLEY AND BILLINGS COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL ND WITH A
GENERAL MOTION OF 230 AT 35 KTS.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY AND ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD INTO CNTRL MT.

PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE STRONG SELY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ONGOING STORMS...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EWD TOWARD THE MO RIVER
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE S...A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AS OF 0245Z OVER BENNETT COUNTY SD AND CHERRY COUNTY
NEB...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE ROTATING
THROUGH MEAN NRN ROCKIES TROUGH.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE S OF RAP SEWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB.  GIVEN THAT STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL N OF THIS
AREA...AS WELL AS MORE INTENSE DPVA...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND NO ADDITIONAL WW
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 06/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GGW...

47000437 47640435 48010373 47940129 47040012 45189974
43149943 42529972 42310028 42550123 42970180 44550258
45590268 

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