[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 142247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142247 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / SWRN ND / NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...483...

VALID 142247Z - 150015Z

THROUGH 01Z...EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM
NEAR AND S OF MLS INTO FAR SWRN ND AND NWRN SD.  AN ADDITIONAL WW
MAY BE NECESSARY TO THE N OF WWS 482 AND 483.

AS OF 2225Z...BILLINGS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS EXHIBITING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER ERN ROSEBUD COUNTY MOVING 220/30 KTS. 
HAIL FOUR INCHES IN DIAMETER WAS REPORTED WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST
CELL WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT STORM MOTIONS
INDICATES THAT NRN PORTION OF THIS STORM CLUSTER WILL MOVE N OF WW
482 INTO PRAIRIE COUNTY MT BETWEEN 2330 AND 0000Z.  INTENSIFICATION
OF MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CARTER COUNTY MT INTO
HARDING...BUTTE AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SD ALSO APPEARS LIKELY AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES FROM
THE SW.

WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS...CORRIDOR FROM NEAR 2WX SEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE A COMPARATIVELY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  HERE...WEAKER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COUPLED WITH LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD MORE DISCRETE...SUPERCELLULAR
CONVECTION BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS AREA...AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO
WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..MEAD.. 06/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

46260614 46850593 47290511 47240366 46630221 45870184
45110181 44850227 44840298 45140385 45500520 45530582 

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