[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 14 16:38:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141636 
MTZ000-WYZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY / SOUTH CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141636Z - 141800Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN WY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MT.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
MOVING NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SRN MT INTO A MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND/OR WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EWD
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THIS SAME AREA OF INSTABILITY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER ERN ID/NRN UT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWLY 70 KT MID LEVEL JET
EXTENDING FROM UT INTO SRN WY. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE...FROM SWRN MT INTO NRN-NERN UT.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY/SOUTH CENTRAL
MT TO THE WEST OF THE BIG HORN BASIN.  

A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS OVER CENTRAL AND NERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN MOIST ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE BIG HORN BASIN.  THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE
AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/...
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  ENELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BENEATH DEEP SSWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 06/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

43840942 44560937 46100936 46770947 46910832 46840730
46680646 44940597 43610685 43430730 43470845 43590918 

WWWW