[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 14 02:41:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140240 
SDZ000-NEZ000-140415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...

VALID 140240Z - 140415Z

CONTINUE WW.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WW BY 04Z EXPIRATION.

ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND
IS PROBABLY BEING SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...FORMING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.  THIS JET MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 40 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF HIGH PLAINS
THERMAL RIDGE. THOUGH CAPPING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY...AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-06Z...NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF PIERRE
INTO AREAS WEST OF CHAMBERLAIN.  

IF THIS OCCURS...OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT...SUPPORTING A FEW DOWNBURSTS...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW
IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 06/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

43760236 44140205 44110076 44029952 43899913 43379905
42880002 42870053 43220164 43280216 

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