[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 131841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131841 
SDZ000-132015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131841Z - 132015Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN SD. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM WRN ND INTO ERN SD ALONG THE SRN SIDE OF
60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. CELLS ARE INITIATING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND STRONG GRADIENT
OF INSTABILITY. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE SD. IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN
INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F...THEN A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

43739732 43839946 44450009 45469974 45779823 45149685 

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