[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 13 07:21:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 130719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130719 
FLZ000-GAZ000-130845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN/SCNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130719Z - 130845Z

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEWD ABOUT 80
MILES SW OF CEDAR KEY FL AT 07Z.  SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT
EWD FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS NRN FL JUST S OF KCTY-KGNV-KSGJ. 
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS NCNTRL FL AND
ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK ENEWD TOWARD NCNTRL FL THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.  

CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND ALBERTO WITH THE
STRONGEST BAND CURRENTLY MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA.  OTHER BANDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE
FARTHER W OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA.  VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NE FROM
EARLY IN THE EVE...MAINLY FROM THE LAKELAND AREA NWD WITH 0-1KM
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS.  AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD...HIGHEST
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST WHERE THEY APPROACH THE WARM FRONT.

THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AREA AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SRN GA.  AS A
RESULT...ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA.

..RACY.. 06/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

26508249 28998390 29588491 30878432 31648202 31178123
29538074 27868051 26368091 

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