[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122346 
FLZ000-GAZ000-130145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 469...

VALID 122346Z - 130145Z

TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT COULD INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.  A NEW
WW MAY BE ISSUED BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 469.

LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE
CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.  AS ALBERTO
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS THE BIG
BEND...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS GAINESVILLE DURING THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA.  MODIFICATION OF RAIN-
COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER TO ONE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT
...IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REGIME BENEATH LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BUT
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE IN THE IMMEDIATE TAMPA AS
EARLY AS 03Z.  UNTIL THEN...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SEEMS MINIMAL.

..KERR.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29068290 29628300 30228274 30408207 30178143 29128152
28578194 27718239 27338271 27708303 

WWWW