[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122147 
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-122345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM AND FAR WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...

VALID 122147Z - 122345Z

CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS UNION COUNTY NM. AREA
EAST OF WW 468 WILL BE MONITORED FOR A NEW WW IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. NORTH OF WW 468 ACROSS
NERN CO...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
ANOTHER WW.

A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE RATON MESA/NERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS INTO A MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NWRN TX AND WRN OK PANHANDLES. EWD EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO SERN CO
WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS DUE TO PRESENCE OF
MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. DESPITE UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EXISTS /35-40 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 10-15
KTS. THUS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY SHOW SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND POTENTIAL.  FURTHER
NORTH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS EXIST...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW
WAS MORE VEERED...SUPPORTING SIMILAR VERTICAL SHEAR AS AREAS SOUTH.
ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INVOF COLO SPRINGS AND
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SVR IN THE NEXT HR OR SO UNDER THE
PRESENCE OF THIS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE DEN AREA IN THE SAME TIME FRAME AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED INVOF OF DEN CYCLONE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN NERN CO.

..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

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