[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121916 
MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-122145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ID PANHANDLE...FAR NERN WA/NWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121916Z - 122145Z

ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EITHER NORTH OF OR EMBEDDED IN ADVANCING
CLOUD SHIELD MOVING ACROSS SERN WA/NERN ORE. OVERALL SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL THROUGH 22Z...AND A WW IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THEN.

AIRMASS OVER NERN WA...NRN ID PANHANDLE AND NWRN MT WILL LIKELY SEE
SLOW DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
ORE. EMBEDDED ELEVATED CELLS WITHIN THIS CLOUD MASS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF
SIGNS OF INCREASING IN THE LAST HOUR...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A MODIFIED 12Z OTX SOUNDING
AND RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
FROM 78-80 DEG IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE REMAINS A SHORT WINDOW
THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN WA/NRN ID PANHANDLE AND FAR
NWRN MT BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD OFFSET HEATING FOR
SEVERAL HRS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY ISOLATED. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MAIN SVR THREAT WILL
DEVELOP AFTER THE INITIAL CLOUD MASS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA /AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/ WHEN DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER THAT TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...

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