[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 12 00:13:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120012 
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-120145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...

VALID 120012Z - 120145Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE BEING MONITORED.

CLUSTER OF STORMS...PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SEASONABLY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH 02-03Z.  RELATIVELY
MODERATE SURFACE HEATING ON WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. 
AND...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STABILIZE NEXT FEW
HOURS...VIGOR OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. 
UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC 30+ KT MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE STORM MOTIONS FOR CONTINUING
MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER TO STABILIZE ON NOSE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG COULD STILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/WEST OF NASHVILLE BY 02Z.

..KERR.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

37658396 37188262 36248418 35748660 35758769 36208860
36928787 37078627 37458465 

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