[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 112147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112147 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM... OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK
AND SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112147Z - 120015Z

ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO WILL LIKELY TRACK
SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN CO/NERN NM IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SWRN KS/SERN CO. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WAS SUPPORTING BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND RATON RIDGE AREA. DESPITE
MARGINAL MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE AREA...15 KTS AT 500
MB...THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SUPPORTING AROUND 30 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NERN NM...AND NORTH OF THIS STORM IN
THE PUB AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH CONTINUED MODERATE UPSLOPE
FLOW. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER
SHOULD FAVOR MARGINALLY SVR WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. FURTHER
EAST...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WW 464 SEWD INTO SWRN KS /JUST NORTH OF
BUFFALO OK/ AS FOCUSED SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH ASCENT FROM
UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF NM AND WEAKENING CINH. THE OVERALL
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL
ENOUGH THAT ORGANIZED SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

39020210 38880462 38040465 36900445 36270434 36350317
36460208 36560087 36879938 37299920 37470144 

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