[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 111639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111638 
KYZ000-TNZ000-111845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TN THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111638Z - 111845Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP
EWD THROUGH NWRN AND NCNTRL TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN KY. 
FARTHER SW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL SWWD THROUGH SERN MO AND NERN AR.
WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. AN MCV OVER S CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS KY. OTHER STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE MODEST WITH WLY EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXISTS
OVER CNTRL KY NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
30 TO 35 KT. DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR AND
SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD.

..DIAL.. 06/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

37618458 37198406 36658415 36238486 35858643 35548781
35438949 36748886 37658713 

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