[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 10 17:15:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 101714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101714 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-101915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101714Z - 101915Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER SERN WY INTO NERN CO THROUGH 19Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN NEB BY
MID AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES 
ARE EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB INTO EXTREME NERN CO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z OR 19Z.

A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN CO THROUGH WRN NEB AND
INTO SWRN SD. W OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S...WHILE E OF THE FRONT
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG FROM SERN WY INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO
TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN NEB AND EXTREME NERN CO. SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY ACCOMPANIED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO
AND SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP
EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WRN NEB. STORMS W OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHER BASED.
STORM BASES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER E OF THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF WRN NEB AND EXTREME
NERN CO WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 06/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

39900424 42340540 42900362 41560237 39870231 

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