[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 10 00:35:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 100034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100033 
COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-100230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...ERN NV...NRN AND CENTRAL UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...455...

VALID 100033Z - 100230Z

THREAT FOR SVR IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY OVER BOTH WW/S 453 AND 455 AND
BOTH WW/S MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS
OVER SERN ID. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 453 IN SERN ID. A NARROW AXIS
OF INSTABILITY REMAINS BEHIND WW 453 IN SWRN ID AND FAR
NCENTRAL/NERN NV AS PER THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN
THIS REGION.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER WW 455...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SURGED OUT
OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE SLC AREA. FURTHER SW...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OUTFLOW REMAINS MODEST OVER
WCENTRAL/CENTRAL UT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAX THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS FAR NRN UT. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON THE 00Z GJT SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EAST OF WW 455 AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NERN UT AND
POSSIBLY NWRN CO FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

40880821 40911106 42361103 43421120 42431330 42551449
42511618 42001655 41631639 41131515 40741273 40361245
39321247 39111159 38791016 38750852 

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