[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 092046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092046 
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN ID AND SWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...

VALID 092046Z - 092245Z

MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS.

DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN NV...LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
HAS BECOME STABILIZED FROM PREVIOUS TSTM CLUSTER AND WILL LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. THUS THIS AREA SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM WW 453
SHORTLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN
UT HAS MERGED WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND FOCUSED MARGINAL
SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SWRN
MT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

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