[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 9 20:47:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 092043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092042 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN  NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092042Z - 092245Z

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
23Z FROM NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA
BY 23Z OR ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. 

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB WWD
THROUGH NWRN NEB WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
E CNTRL NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN SD
THEN SEWD THROUGH WRN IA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN
NB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SLY
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORE
DEEPLY MIXED REGIME IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH IN E CNTRL NEB AND
SPREAD EWD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 35 KT AT 500 MB IS
RESULTING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NEAR AND E OF
TRIPLE POINT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
HIGH STORM BASES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 06/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41669718 42429769 43189813 43769797 43829642 43339503
42669446 41989505 