[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 9 18:02:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 091800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091800 
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...FAR WRN WY AND SWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091800Z - 092000Z

CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAINS AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE...AND OVER FAR
SCENTRAL ID. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSES WILL SUPP0RT THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WHILE
MOVING NEWD EVENTUALLY INTO FAR WRN WY/SWRN MT. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NERN NV WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO SERN ID/WRN
WY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
IN AREAS THAT WERE RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...MAINLY THE LOWER-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RIVER RANGE IN FAR ERN ID. STORMS HAVE ALSO
SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION RECENTLY OVER SCENTRAL ID JUST AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 12Z BOI SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH WELL MIXED DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 50S. RESULTANT MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL. LOCAL HAIL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES AROUND 1 INCH HAIL
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY FOR A WEAK/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN STRONG FLOW OVER
SRN GREAT BASIN AND ERN ORE...SUFFICIENT FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

45761168 44541318 43221465 42471457 42041375 42151196
42761094 43151060 44511033 45331011 45791051 

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