[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 9 16:52:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 091651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091651 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-091845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NRN DEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091651Z - 091845Z

THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
PA AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN MD...NRN DEL AND NJ NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL PA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
-16 C AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AS AN UPPER
JET SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING
THE SEWD ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT FOR HAIL.

..DIAL.. 06/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

41207565 40437437 39567448 39497552 39737738 41067821
41847738 

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