[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 062039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062039 
AZZ000-062245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062039Z - 062245Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

STORMS HAVE RECENT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ AS
OF 2030Z. A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH STORMS
LIKELY TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWEST ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR AND I-10/I-19
CORRIDOR.

AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST IN MID LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.0 INCH. BETWEEN ROCKIES RIDGE/BAJA LOW...A
BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW -- 25-35 KTS PER
12Z TUCSON RAOB AND TUCSON/PHOENIX WSR-88D VWPS -- WILL FAVOR A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST SPREAD OF EVOLVING CLUSTERS ONTO THE DESERT
FLOOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. SOME HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 06/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

33661254 33551103 32880960 31590955 31401062 31751199
32371298 

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