[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 6 08:58:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 060857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060857 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS...ERN OK...FAR WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...

VALID 060857Z - 061030Z

AN MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSEWD
LATE TONIGHT INTO ERN OK. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 12Z. THE AREA
DOWNSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WW.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WRN AND CNTRL KS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN MCS ONGOING IN SERN KS. THE
MCS IS TRACKING SSEWD DOWN AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ORIENTED
FROM SE KS INTO ERN OK AS SUGGESTED BY RUC ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY IS
ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 30 KT OF NW FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS
CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM
SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL DAMAGING
WIND GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35149679 34569600 34319523 34709423 35679393 36649463
37169546 37159635 36639710 35849714 

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