[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 6 04:14:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 060414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060413 
OKZ000-KSZ000-060545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS...NERN OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 060413Z - 060545Z

...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NCNTRL OK.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AIDED BY A STRONG LLJ FOCUSED
FROM CNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION
SUGGEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION ARE INCREASING
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 14C.  MOIST
CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP INGESTING LOWER
THETA-E PARCELS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE NOTED IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
CAN AGITATE THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE BUOYANT PARCELS TO ASCEND
TO THEIR LFC.  FARTHER NORTH...SEWD MOVING CONVECTION MAY INTERACT
WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING THE PROSPECT
FOR DEEPER...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 06/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37579892 37569655 35559483 34589621 35279778 36709907 

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