[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 26 16:39:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261639 
INZ000-ILZ000-261815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261639Z - 261815Z

A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING/INCREASING AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE
WARMING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...FOCUSED NEAR 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE.  EVOLUTION INTO A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE/CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18-21Z...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED  WITH
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN TROUGH...AND
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ROUGHLY
BETWEEN QUINCY AND ST. LOUIS.  FLOW/SHEAR REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
ILLINOIS IS RATHER WEAK...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO
1000-2000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL.  AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BECOME MINIMIZED AS OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BECOME DOMINANT.

..KERR.. 06/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

41338851 41478737 40878658 40098726 39158750 38348791
37688893 38548912 39248912 39898976 40908932 

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