[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 23 14:41:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 231441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231441 
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-231615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...MD...DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231441Z - 231615Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN NRN VA...MD AND DE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
CNTRL VA. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND
ORGANIZE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ALLOW THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY. WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...HAIL COULD ALSO BE A
THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

37567667 37267746 37047838 37537901 38237915 38847836
39177732 39537625 39417541 38517490 37977550 

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