[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 22 18:30:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221829 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-222000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN PA...FAR WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221829Z - 222000Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD
INTO WRN PA AND WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.

LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS
SRN OH...WRN PA AND WV WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY PRESENT. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN OH IN
AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
EXPANDING THE CONVECTION AND MOVING THE STORMS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A JET NEAR 700 MB ACROSS SWRN
ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS A RESULT...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

37968101 38538174 40008112 41738024 42617923 41947747
40197809 37957954 