[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221710 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-221845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...FAR SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221710Z - 221845Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK AND NW AR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL
MO SWWD INTO NERN OK ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN KS WITH A BAND OF
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL EXIST. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS ESPECIALLY AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

34679315 35119641 36089674 36969584 36499284 35719241 

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