[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221622 
ILZ000-MOZ000-221745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MO...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221622Z - 221745Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
SCNTRL MO ON THE SRN END OF AN MCS. AS THE CELLS EXPAND IN
COVERAGE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A
WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC MESOLOW OVER SE MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN SRN MO. THE
AIRMASS IN WHICH THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWPS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

37999009 37359259 37779314 38439319 38829277 39559027
38538940 

WWWW