[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 220345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220345 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-220545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND SERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533...

VALID 220345Z - 220545Z

CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY
MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. MERGING OUTFLOW BNDRYS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SVR
THREAT BECOMING MORE OF A HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER
CENTRAL/ECENTRAL KS. DESPITE INCREASING CINH...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
FAR NWRN OK/SCENTRAL KS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE GIVEN RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE. 

SVR CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SWD SUPPORTED BY
MODEST PRESSURE RISES. HOWEVER...EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRY
OVER SWRN KS HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND IS NOW
SUPPORTING A SLOWER MVMNT SPEED ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER /SLN AND RSL AREA/. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EWD ALONG THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
I-70 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE SWRN KS OUTFLOW SHOULD REMAIN
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET /50 KTS PER THE 02Z GDA
PROFILER DATA/. DMGG WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...BUT AS MERGING OUTFLOWS
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE MODE...HVY RAIN WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
INFLOW INTO CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF FAR
SCENTRAL KS. DESPITE STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE
AND MATURE COLD POOL...INCREASING CINH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SVR
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

FINALLY...OVER SERN NEB SMALLER CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY / REF 00Z OMA SOUNDING/ AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY INCREASING TSTM
COVERAGE AND A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO FAR SRN IA AND NRN MO THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED
ON THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ONLY
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 533 IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

40859245 40919474 40799634 39519716 38919959 38640045
38410029 38219849 37379862 37189888 36999766 37119499
38569460 39329230 39999193 

WWWW