[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 21 17:19:17 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211719 
ILZ000-IAZ000-211845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL IA...FAR NW IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526...

VALID 211719Z - 211845Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS WW
526. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER CNTRL IA
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 60S F
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER CNTRL WI. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL IA AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON THE SLATER IA PROFILER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW
526 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX...

40639154 40689341 41029422 42149427 42639321 42509108
41879026 41019044 

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