[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 21 06:49:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210649 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 210649Z - 210815Z

LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEB WILL LIKELY TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MO OVERNIGHT.  THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE WW.

RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN NEB MOVING EASTWARD AT 25-30 KT.  OVERALL INTENSITY OF
STORMS HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DIURNAL
COOLING WEAKENED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...STORMS WILL REMAIN IN AN
AXIS OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH 35-40
KT WESTERLY 500MB FLOW AND 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. 
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  MORE IMPORTANTLY...SHEAR PROFILES...SIZE OF
MCS...AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION/
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL FORMATION.  WE WILL MONITOR
THIS ACTIVITY FOR SIGNS OF UPSCALE ORGANIZATION WHICH WOULD REQUIRE
WW ISSUANCE.

..HART.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

41629625 42179503 42399216 41819100 40469100 39849192
39799430 39879611 40619655 

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