[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 210639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210638 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-210845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IN/WRN OH/N CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 210638Z - 210845Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN INDIANA...WHERE
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT EXISTS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR -- AS A WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF MORE
EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND ERN INDIANA...ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE
WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS OCCURRING.

POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE
ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER -- AND THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
MARGINAL HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF THE STABLE
LAYER...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION ON THE
MESOSCALE COULD RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
ANY SIGNS OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...WHICH COULD SUBSEQUENTLY
REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

41338528 40598370 39648412 38138419 37848547 38308633
40228652 40978639 

WWWW