[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 21 02:12:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210212 
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN NEB...SRN SD AND
NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522...523...524...

VALID 210212Z - 210415Z

CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN CO /WW 522/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ITO WW 524 BETWEEN
03-05Z. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS. THE SVR THREAT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 522 /WRN
NEB/ APPEARS TO BE WANING AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WATCH IN
THE NEXT HR OR SO. FURTHER NORTH OVER WW 523 /SRN SD/ ADDITIONAL SVR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN
ROCKIES. ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER SCENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EAST OF WW 523.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO NEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING
SVR STORM CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF NERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. CLUSTER/S OF SVR STORMS SHOULD
THEN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS LATER THIS EVENING GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE
NEEDED EAST OF WW 524 BEFORE 05Z.

FURTHER NORTH...LARGE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN NEB.
DESPITE INFLUX OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR INTO THE REGION AND WEAK LIFT
ON SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE AIRMASS OVER
MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF WW 522 WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH
THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REMNANT LEFT
SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER WW 523 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS OVER SERN SD...SO A
NEW WW EAST OF

000
ACUS11 KWNS 210212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210212 
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN NEB...SRN SD AND
NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522...523...524...

VALID 210212Z - 210415Z

CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER NERN CO /WW 522/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ITO WW 524 BETWEEN
03-05Z. THE MAIN SVR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS. THE SVR THREAT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 522 /WRN
NEB/ APPEARS TO BE WANING AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WATCH IN
THE NEXT HR OR SO. FURTHER NORTH OVER WW 523 /SRN SD/ ADDITIONAL SVR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF NRN
ROCKIES. ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER SCENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EAST OF WW 523.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO NEWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN NEB. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING
SVR STORM CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OUT OF NERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. CLUSTER/S OF SVR STORMS SHOULD
THEN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SCENTRAL/SERN NEB...NCENTRAL/NERN KS LATER THIS EVENING GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE
NEEDED EAST OF WW 524 BEFORE 05Z.

FURTHER NORTH...LARGE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN NEB.
DESPITE INFLUX OF STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR INTO THE REGION AND WEAK LIFT
ON SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE AIRMASS OVER
MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF WW 522 WILL LIKELY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH
THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REMNANT LEFT
SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER WW 523 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS OVER SERN SD...SO A
NEW WW EAST OF WW 523 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
HOWEVER REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVER SWRN SD AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES OUT OF NRN WY/SERN MT AND SUPPORTS LARGE SCALE LIFT ON
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG NRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION OVER WRN NEB.

..CROSBIE.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...

44800160 43080353 42940212 41390212 40610241 40120322
38710327 38790101 38709979 38689748 41529692 41620043
43070065 44729845 

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