[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 19 02:20:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190221 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IND...WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

VALID 190221Z - 190415Z

THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE WANING AND WW 508 WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z WITH NO OTHER ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES
ANTICIPATED. 

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EARLIER SFC WAVE NEAR HUF HAS WASHED OUT
AND ONLY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
CENTRAL/ECENTRAL IND FROM EARLIER LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ALTHOUGH AIRMASS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN/ECENTRAL IND INTO SWRN OH
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCAPPED...PER 00Z ILN SOUNDING...DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND LACK OF PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTS THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 508 VALID TIME
/04Z/. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /100 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER
RECENT ILN VWP DATA/ AND THERE WILL REMAIN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH ANY STRONG/SHORT LIVED UPDRAFT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

40828469 40278566 39438687 38828728 38648702 38658615
38788500 39578378 40758375 

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