[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 19 01:45:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190145 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-190345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190145Z - 190345Z

SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA AND NRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. OVERALL
THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
INITIATION. ONE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WI SWWD THROUGH SRN IA INTO SRN NEB WHERE
IT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORM THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER SERN NEB S OF HASTINGS HAS DISSIPATED...BUT
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS ALONG THE IA
PORTION OF THE FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM NERN NEB THROUGH
MUCH OF IA APPEARS TO BE INDICATIVE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SEWD AND MAY BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
SRN IA. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO THE
COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS
COULD STILL DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS SERN NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND WHERE DEVELOPING CLOUDS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
ALREADY BE INCREASING ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONT.

..DIAL.. 06/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

40949910 40819612 41059357 41239209 40649242 39979919 

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