[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 172118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172117 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0417 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...

VALID 172117Z - 172245Z

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P. OF
MI...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO E-CNTRL MN. A MORE ISOLATED/LIMITED
THREAT EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL WI...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MOST VIGOROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE WW. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN
VICINITY OF A MESOLOW AROUND 40 E OF STC. MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SMALL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...WITH WET
MICROBURST AND PULSE SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

FURTHER E...TSTMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW
ACROSS CNTRL WI SHORTLY IN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION BY MODEST WIND SHEAR
/AROUND 20 KTS PER BLR PROFILER/ AND INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 TO 1000
J/KG MLCAPES/...AS WELL AS OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. TSTM
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI E OF A
MQT TO MNM LINE. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FINE-LINE WHICH
IS LIKELY SEPARATING A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE E...AND IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUC/ACARS SOUNDINGS. THE WW MAY BE CLEARED EARLY
IN THIS REGION.

..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

44489162 44979261 46009271 46579218 46789076 47328786
46368424 45918435 45188671 44678857 

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