[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 171512
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171512 
LAZ000-TXZ000-171715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171512Z - 171715Z

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND
PERHAPS INTO SWRN/SRN LA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS REGION WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY ONE OUTLOOK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

MATURE MCS WITH LARGE COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED UPSCALE AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL FLOW/CIRCULATION ACROSS SERN TX THIS MORNING. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCING EAST AT ABOUT 30KT WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY MCV MOVING EAST INTO VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA REVEALS ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN
STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RELATIVELY MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR...
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS
AS MCV AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL ACTIVITY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST AND THE SABINE RIVER AREA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. IF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...

28269613 28099691 28429710 29249621 30279554 31069537
31259511 31229460 31039389 30689335 30399299 29989253
29639254 29329331 29189373 28989450 

WWWW