[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 17 01:03:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170101 
OKZ000-TXZ000-170200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 492...

VALID 170101Z - 170200Z

THROUGH 02Z...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST OVER SERN PORTION OF WW AREA.

QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
ERN PORTION OF WW 492 FROM E OF DDC SWD INTO NWRN OK...WITH TRAILING
PORTION COMPRISED OF MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER WHEELER COUNTY
TX.  ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER WAS OBSERVED OVER CHILDRESS AND COTTLE
COUNTIES IN THE SERN TX PNHDL/NRN TX.  DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAD
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BETWEEN 800 AND 350 MB WHICH...WHEN
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG.

HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN TX
PNHDL INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

35080088 35360077 35510021 34969978 34519969 34130017
34210089 

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