[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 17 00:44:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170041 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-170215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN MN...N-CNTRL IA AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...

VALID 170041Z - 170215Z

DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY TO THE E OF A
MESOLOW JUST N OF MKT...WITH THREAT DIMINISHING IN MCS COLD POOL
REGION ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL MN. CONTINUE WW.

LONG-LIVED MESOLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WAS
LOCATED NORTH OF MANKATO AS OF 0035Z. EMERGING LEWP STRUCTURE IN
VICINITY OF LOW MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS FEATURE LIKELY
TRACKS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. CONTINUED LIFT
NE OF MCS COLD POOL...HAS HELPED INDUCE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS AND INTO THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY. ANY OF
THESE CELLS...AS WELL AS THOSE WHICH ADDITIONALLY DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM...WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000
TO 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS PER MODIFIED
INL/GRB AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE
LLJ FOCUSES FURTHER W.

..GRAMS.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

44309485 45029410 46589335 47069199 46258994 44319038
43519295 42769483 

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