[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 16 22:08:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162206 
TXZ000-162300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY SWD INTO THE
ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162206Z - 162300Z

THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 2157Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED
DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION AND SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM CROSBY
AND GARZA COUNTIES SWD TOWARD MIDLAND AND GLASSCOCK COUNTIES. 
HERE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
THROUGH THE 90S...RESULTING IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /PER
RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/ WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  FURTHER
HEATING ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD SUPPORT
EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WRN
CONCHO VALLEY.

CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES THAT THIS REGION IS ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH GENERALLY 30-35
KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.  GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31140233 32960186 33710153 33810072 33729999 32000025
30440118 30460198 

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