[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 16 04:31:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160429 
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...

VALID 160429Z - 160600Z

THROUGH 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW AREA...PERHAPS INTO S-CNTRL
SD.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SURFACE PATTERN HAS BECOME
COMPLEX OWING TO EXPANSION AND MERGING OF MULTIPLE COLD POOLS. 
HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS AND MORESO...1000-1500 M AGL PROFILER AND VWP
PLAN VIEW DATA...SUGGEST THAT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD SWD THROUGH N-CNTRL NEB TO A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN CO.  AS OF 0420Z...THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXISTED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS DEEP FRONTAL
ZONE FROM LOGAN COUNTY CO INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY NEB.  OTHER STRONG
STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM CHERRY COUNTY NEB INTO TODD AND TRIPP
COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL SD.

FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH NERN CO...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT N AND W OF SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR SNY NEWD TO NEAR AND N OF VTN
THROUGH 07Z.  SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

40730087 40400212 40500315 41860277 42810173 43530069
44059976 43819911 42319944 

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