[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 16 00:26:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160024 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160024Z - 160230Z

...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/NCNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE WATCH...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIR WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING NWD THROUGH CNTRL ND WEST OF DVL AND JMS. ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NCNTRL SD/ERN ND THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS NOW RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO SRN MANITOBA.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CNTRL ND INTO SD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW OVER WRN ND. PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON AREA VWP DATA BETWEEN MINOT AND GRAND
FORKS SUGGESTS CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION.

RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM BISMARCK AND MINOT INDICATE AROUND 40-45
KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER
WEST...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. IF
SUSTAINED SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY...THEN TSTMS WOULD HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT.

..TAYLOR.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

44529778 44520074 48980107 49029773 48769673 46229608
44539683 

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