[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 142032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142032 
MTZ000-WYZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481...

VALID 142032Z - 142100Z

WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SERN MT.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO
SPREAD NWD AND NOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO SERN
MT/WEST CENTRAL SD...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSED EWD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND INTO CENTRAL WY.  SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST WARM
SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/
AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS SE MT/FAR NRN-NERN WY.  STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN ID/WRN WY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REST OF NRN WY
AND NRN/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPORTING THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT AND STRONGER CAP PER 18Z GGW SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS NRN MT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT.

..PETERS.. 06/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

48150648 45930519 44960520 45000841 45040937 46481029
48061066 48951104 48900828 

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